Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.164356 0.184402 0.206037 0.231141 0.259491 0.290543 0.327170
2025-11-30 0.134226 0.160972 0.191909 0.230411 0.277146 0.332169 0.402059
2025-12-07 0.106730 0.135757 0.171457 0.218755 0.280017 0.357016 0.461660
2025-12-14 0.088006 0.118147 0.157373 0.212440 0.288211 0.389467 0.536147
2025-12-21 0.073672 0.103941 0.145438 0.206915 0.296419 0.423117 0.618080
2025-12-28 0.064959 0.096017 0.140736 0.210443 0.317531 0.477700 0.738925
2026-01-04 0.056226 0.086733 0.132681 0.207755 0.328983 0.519865 0.848662
2026-01-11 0.049813 0.079983 0.127389 0.208370 0.345485 0.572246 0.983896
2026-01-18 0.044983 0.075009 0.124117 0.211627 0.366653 0.635389 1.148568
2026-01-25 0.038843 0.067007 0.114764 0.203182 0.366386 0.661715 1.252479
2026-02-01 0.033432 0.059516 0.105251 0.192997 0.361308 0.678414 1.341169
2026-02-08 0.029632 0.054373 0.099173 0.188142 0.365290 0.712431 1.469797
2026-02-15 0.026194 0.049541 0.093210 0.182996 0.368646 0.747252 1.610235
2026-02-22 0.024245 0.047276 0.091787 0.186581 0.390260 0.822913 1.854434
2026-03-01 0.021457 0.043006 0.085897 0.180201 0.390020 0.852594 2.001828
2026-03-08 0.019367 0.039874 0.081884 0.177191 0.396656 0.898612 2.197786
2026-03-15 0.017536 0.037043 0.078126 0.174173 0.402796 0.944632 2.403923
2026-03-22 0.016513 0.035800 0.077575 0.178280 0.426244 1.035739 2.745868
2026-03-29 0.015170 0.033685 0.074833 0.176873 0.436125 1.095322 3.016963
2026-04-05 0.014151 0.032170 0.073252 0.178022 0.452636 1.174883 3.362472
2026-04-12 0.013365 0.031096 0.072553 0.181252 0.475124 1.274478 3.790147
2026-04-19 0.012047 0.028601 0.068157 0.174412 0.469543 1.296346 3.987527
2026-04-26 0.010782 0.026083 0.063407 0.165971 0.458215 1.300101 4.129480